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  • 2008 Economic and Investment Outlook
    The decline in the value of existing homes is what will cause the 2008 recession and cause it to be the most severe recession since the early 1980s (although not all that bad by historical standards). The bulk of the average American's savings is in their home and their net worth is decreasing.
  • Danger: Recession Ahead Proceed with Caution
    Housing, and related, jobs account for 10% of our total employment. Single family housing starts fell 7.3% in October and permits dropped 6.6%, to the lowest levels in 15 years. (You can see the ripple effect on the earnings of Home Depot and Lowes.)
  • Making Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Work for You
    Exchange traded funds are index funds which have advantages over open-end index mutual funds. ETFs trade all day long on the stock exchanges, may be purchased through any broker, have lower fund expenses than mutual funds, and have less likelihood of generating unwanted taxable gains than mutual funds.
  • Investing In Energy Funds
    China, India and the other new economies also consume more energy each year. Political instability in Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela could limit supply. And, there's only so much oil (natural gas and coal) in the ground. I'm not suggesting we'll run out but it will become more expensive to extract it.
  • Indexing for Passive Aggressive Investors
    Since their beginning, index funds have expanded their breath. You can find a fund which tracks any of the major indices and most industry sectors, such as health care and technology. The first cousin of index funds, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), do the same thing-they track indices.
  • Recession Investing And The Housing Market
    Housing market problems are not limited to new home sales. The value of your home and the market for sales of existing homes is falling. By how much and for how long is the big question.
  • Mr. Greenspan's Investments
    In 2030, Mr. Greenspan forecasts the real U.S. GDP will be 75% greater than today. That may sound like a big number but it's only 2.5% annual compound growth, well within historical norms.
  • The Economic Crises of 2008
    Given the run up in housing prices, a 10% correction is not out of the question but it could put the economy into a tailspin. Why? Homeowners have been taking out the increase in the value of their homes through home equity loans and/or refinancing with higher principal balances.
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